By Ray Hickson
An in-depth look at the chances of every runner in the Listed $1 million The Newcastle Herald Hunter (1300m) at Newcastle on Saturday.
1. Pericles (SCRATCHED).
2. General Salute (Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou): Rarely puts in a bad race and there’s every reason to think he will be more than competitive once again. Well ridden to ride the speed and score first-up of two months in the Bill Ritchie over 1400m, he held his ground in the Alan Brown beaten 1-1/2 lengths. He has the top weight to shoulder, so he’ll need to find a spot in the first half of the field to be most effective. If that happens, then he’s a genuine chance.
3. King Of Roseau (Peter Snowden): Very interesting runner who is racing particularly well in strong company and finds himself in something quite winnable if he gets the breaks. That’s the life of a backmarker. He ran on well beaten four lengths by Tempted in the Premiere and he didn’t have a lot of luck from the back in a fast run Russell Balding, three lengths behind Pericles. Given that racing pattern it comes down to how the race is run and whether you can make ground but on paper he’s one of the main hopes.
Coal Crusher (Pic: Bradley Photos).
4. Coal Crusher (Joe Pride): Front-running gelding likely having his farewell appearance and while his form doesn’t look great he has had excuses in a couple of much stronger races leading into this. He’s raced at this meeting for the past four years, winning three times including The Hunter twice while placing in between his two wins, you know what you’ll get from him if he can find the front. With the blinkers back on imagine there’ll be intent to lead and see what he can do. He does need to lift but it’s not out of the question to give some cheek.
5. War Eternal (Bjorn Baker): Back from what was quite a fruitful winter campaign where he won three straight in Brisbane and was pretty honest most of the way through. He does tend to need a run or two to get going though as his stats illustrate and from that outside barrier, he’d be unlikely to be getting on top of the speed. He’d want a decent wet track to be a chance of an upset but just look for him running on late.
6. Sweynesday (Annabel & Rob Archibald): Handy former Kiwi galloper who improved on an even first-up run for the new stable to just miss down the straight at Flemington a couple of weeks ago. His overall record is excellent, the bulk of it in NZ, but he did show with that last start effort he might be getting into his groove after two runs back in May where not a lot went right. In his favour are a nice gate, a 3kg drop in weight and if he’s ready to peak this is a race he can make an impact in.
7. Infancy (Kris Lees): Local mare who is in foal to Anamoe so nearing the end of her career. She hasn’t won for around 580 days but she’s always around the mark in stakes company and her recent form is pretty handy. She was excellent late in the Tibbie running into fourth behind Perfumist then was five weeks between runs when a $71 chance and giving Lazzura something to think about late in The Invitation. Contested this race last year and finished midfield but looks to be going better, gets a smother from the draw and if things open up for her, she’ll go close.
8. Run Harry Run (Ben, Will & JD Hayes): Consistent on pace type who has drawn wide but with the speed around him that’s not likely an issue and he can roll forward into a reasonable spot with a bit of luck. Well placed and far too good at Cranbourne in a rich restricted race with 58.5kg. So he has a nice little weight drop and he’s not without each-way claims.
9. Accredited (Joe Pride): Chased home his stablemate Coal Crusher in this race last year when second-up off a placing in the Choisir at Randwick on Big Dance day. He ran third in that race fresh and lands here fitter and with the sort of gate he can make some use of. It’s been a while between wins for him, some 510 days, but when he’s in form, he’s usually around the mark. Drops 7kg and has a case to run well.
10. Chidiac (Brett & Georgie Cavanough): It just didn’t work out for her in The Kosciuszko so her effort to close the race off from last and run fourth was full of merit. Country Championships winner from earlier this year then took out a Group 3 mares race at Hawkesbury so she has that touch of class about her. Draws softly this time. The Kosciuszko form didn’t hold up in this race last year, but she has her chance to correct that if she’s at her best.
Chidiac (Pic: Bradley Photos).
11. Disneck (Bjorn Baker): Well-known backmarker who probably has the best turn of foot in the race if he’s on song and can use it. Form of late has been okay, he was only beaten two lengths in the Sydney Stakes and a similar margin at Flemington last time out after getting well back as usual. You’ve got to take him on trust, though. If he’s in range and travelling coming to the turn he could surprise but we are getting towards a year since his last win.
12. Brave One (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): Won the Benchmark 94 at this meeting last year and won at Caulfield in May but he’s been in the deep end in his three runs in the spring. Huge odds in the Alan Brown and ran well without a lot of luck, perhaps he didn’t get the 1500m in the Five Diamonds Prelude. This is the first time this preparation he’s found a reasonable set up from a decent enough gate and in the right sort of grade. No surprise if he’s in the finish somewhere.
13. Brudenell (Kris Lees): We’re up to about 623 days since his last win but he does bob up on occasion, as he did in this race last year running third at his third run from a spell and on the back of an identical lead up to what he’s produced this year. Wide most of the way second-up and boxed on okay, he will need to find a spot from a tricky gate with speed outside him but he’s one of those horses you probably should have in the trifectas.
14. Signor Tortoni (Ron Quinton): He’s probably on the fringe of this sort of class and if you overlook his Sydney Stakes run where he didn’t finish off his runs either side have been sound. Drops 5kg on his second in the Choisir at 1100m where he sat three wide and ran Polyglot to under half a length. Placed all three goes at this sort of trip and he’s another who could place at each-way odds.
15. Golden Straand (Matthew Smith): Promising type who does face a bit of a job from his wide alley. Thought he was a touch disappointing at Flemington two weeks ago but his two runs prior to that for a win at Randwick and a close second at Doomben were handy. Listed placed back in May at Scone. The set up for this race doesn’t look to favour him but if things work out for him early you never know.
16. Lord Of Biscay (Kris Lees): Provincial-Midway Championships winner from back in April and he’s only raced twice this time in for mixed results. He was perfectly okay when resuming but ordinary when trying Caulfield out a month ago. He’s better than that, he likes his home track and has drawn okay. Started favourite against Formal Display in the Tamworth Cup which isn’t a bad reference. Not without each-way hopes.
17. She’s An Artist (Ciaron Maher): Lightly raced mare who has her share of talent and comes off a deserved and quite strong win at Warwick Farm under 59.5kg where she went forward and was never in danger. She didn’t have much luck in The Nivison before that. No doubt this is her biggest test but she’s a horse still on the up with a versatile racing pattern and a light weight. Have to consider her a threat.
18E. Point And Shoot (Bjorn Baker): Enigmatic fellow whose only run this time in was a late closing midfield finish at Flemington three weeks ago. Narrowly beaten in the Luskin Star at Scone over this trip back in May, not a bad reference, but what he has to deal with is his tendency to be slowly out. That makes it hard to get a lot of confidence about him. No doubt capable on his day but he’s one to take on trust.
19E. Theblade (Michael, John & Wayne Hawkes): Strong on pace winner first-up at Rosehill then every chance next time out at Randwick on Epsom Day. He did stick on but no excuses there. Out of his depth in the Russell Balding but didn’t fail, just not up to that class. He might be better placed in the last race at this meeting but if he’s here he could fill a placing.
Other Emergencies: Phearson (Sara Ryan), Rotagilla (Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott) and Oui Oui Oui (Jason Attard).
SPEED MAP: We should find Coal Crusher ridden to lead with the blinkers on from a wide alley. Others drawn out with some pace include Run Harry Run, Golden Straand and Phearson if he gains a run. Accredited kicks up from barrier one, General Salute and She’s An Artist look for spots off the speed. Sweynesday can be closer from his gate.
SELECTIONS:
7 INFANCY
17 She’s An Artist
2 General Salute
6 Sweynesday